Por Alberto González Pandiella y Alessandro Maravalle, Departamento de Economía de la OCDE

Costa Rica ha hecho un notable progreso económico en las dos últimas décadas, como tener una esperanza de vida equiparable a la media de la OCDE. Gracias a un fuerte compromiso con el comercio, ha logrado atraer inversión extranjera directa y aumentar el nivel de sofisticación de su cesta de exportaciones. Sin embargo, los retos para salvaguardar estos logros y seguir mejorando el nivel de vida son considerables. Las perspectivas de crecimiento se estaban deteriorando antes de la pandemia y, en el futuro, el envejecimiento de la población se cobrará un peaje adicional (gráfico). El desempleo es elevado, con una tasa de dos dígitos desde 2018, así como la informalidad, que afecta a casi la mitad de la población activa. La situación fiscal mejoró en 2021 y 2022, gracias a la reforma fiscal de 2018, pero con una deuda pública en torno al 70% del PIB, las finanzas públicas siguen siendo una vulnerabilidad crítica que requiere esfuerzos sostenidos para contener el gasto e impulsar la eficiencia del sector público. Las tendencias de nearshoring, por las que las empresas buscan reducir los riesgos de interrupción de la cadena de suministro localizándose más cerca de sus mercados finales, están proporcionando nuevas oportunidades de inversión. Costa Rica está a la vanguardia de la protección del medio ambiente y la generación de energías renovables, y la transición mundial hacia la emisión neta cero de gases de efecto invernadero puede aumentar aún más la competitividad del país.

El último Estudio Económico de la OCDE (OCDE, 2023) sostiene que continuar e intensificar los esfuerzos de reforma estructural sería la mejor manera de que Costa Rica respondiera a estos retos y aprovechara las nuevas oportunidades. Las reformas para impulsar la productividad son especialmente críticas para mantener el crecimiento del PIB y del nivel de vida. El fortalecimiento de la competencia es una vía especialmente prometedora para impulsar la productividad. Una competencia débil tiende a traducirse en precios relativamente altos de bienes y servicios para consumidores y empresas. Recientemente se han dado pasos valiosos y audaces para impulsar la competencia en mercados clave, como el del arroz o los servicios profesionales. También se están tomando medidas, en cooperación con el sector privado, para reducir la carga regulatoria, mediante la identificación de reglamentos y procedimientos susceptibles de ser eliminados progresivamente, incluyendo también plazos concretos para su supresión. Dotar a la autoridad nacional de competencia del presupuesto que le otorga la ley es un reto pendiente, que sería especialmente beneficioso en la coyuntura actual, en la que se están tomando medidas para mejorar las regulaciones y abrir sectores clave de la economía. Una autoridad de competencia eficaz, al promover un crecimiento económico más fuerte, también pueden tener un impacto fiscal positivo al apoyar una mayor recaudación de impuestos.

La informalidad, en torno al 45% del empleo total, sigue siendo elevada y es a la vez causa y consecuencia de la baja productividad. Se requiere una estrategia global para reducirla, con acciones necesarias en varias áreas, como reducir los costes laborales no salariales, facilitar la creación de empresas formales, incluso reduciendo el coste burocrático y económico de establecer una empresa formal, ayudar a más costarricenses a adquirir las cualificaciones necesarias para acceder a empleos formales, simplificar los impuestos y mejorar los mecanismos de aplicación. La experiencia de algunos países de la OCDE, como Colombia, indica que la reducción de los costes no salariales, mediante la reducción de las cargas salariales de los empleadores, puede ayudar a reducir la informalidad. Las cargas salariales de los empleadores en Costa Rica son elevadas en comparación con la media de la OCDE, lo que indica que hay un amplio margen para avanzar en esta dirección.

La asistencia sanitaria y la educación primaria prácticamente universales y una de las coberturas de pensiones más altas de la región han dado lugar a resultados sociales notables. Sin embargo, Costa Rica se enfrenta a importantes retos sociales, como el mantenimiento de la pobreza en torno al 20% en los últimos 25 años y el aumento de la desigualdad de ingresos. Hay margen para mejorar la focalización de los programas sociales, ya que en algunos casos más del 40% de los beneficiarios son hogares de ingresos medios y altos. También hay margen para reducir la fragmentación, ya que 21 instituciones se encargan de ejecutar más de 35 programas. Una mejor focalización y una menor fragmentación facilitarían el refuerzo de la protección social en áreas clave y reducirían la desigualdad.

Mejorar la calidad y la eficiencia de la educación y la formación también es clave para apoyar el crecimiento y la equidad en Costa Rica. Aunque el gasto en educación en Costa Rica es elevado, ascendiendo a más del 6,5% del PIB, uno de los porcentajes más altos de los países de la OCDE, los resultados educativos siguen siendo pobres y la exclusión educativa sigue siendo alta, con demasiados costarricenses que abandonan la escuela sin haber cursado la educación secundaria superior. Un apoyo más localizado a los alumnos con dificultades de aprendizaje, la mejora de la selección y la formación de los profesores y la ampliación del acceso a la educación a los niños menores de cuatro años contribuirían a aumentar la igualdad de oportunidades y ayudarían a que más costarricenses accedieran a empleos formales mejor remunerados y a que las empresas cubrieran más fácilmente sus vacantes.

Gráfico. Sin reformas el potencial de crecimiento de la economía caerá al desvanecerse el bono demográfico

Contribuciones al crecimiento potencial, % puntos

Referencias:

OCDE (2023), OCDE Estudios Económicos: Costa Rica 2023, OECD Publishing, Paris.

By Alberto Gonzalez Pandiella and Alessandro Maravalle, OECD Economics Department

Costa Rica has made remarkable economic progress over the past two decades, such as achieving life expectancy at par with the OECD average. Thanks to a strong commitment to trade, it has succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment and in increasing the level of sophistication of its export basket. However, the challenges to safeguard these achievements and further improve living standards are substantial. Growth prospects were deteriorating before the pandemic and going forward population ageing will take an additional toll (Figure). Unemployment is high, at a two-digit rate since 2018, as well as informality, affecting nearly half of the labour force. The fiscal situation improved in 2021 and 2022, thanks to the 2018 fiscal reform, but with public debt at around 70% of GDP, public finances remain a critical vulnerability requiring sustained efforts to contain spending and boost public sector efficiency. Nearshoring trends, by which companies seek reducing supply chain disruption risks by locating closer to their final markets, are providing new investment opportunities. Costa Rica is a front runner in environmental protection and renewables generation, and the global transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions can further increase the country’s competitiveness.

The latest OECD Economic Survey (OECD, 2023) argues that continuing and stepping up structural reform efforts would be the best way for Costa Rica to respond to these challenges and seize new opportunities. Reforms to boost productivity are particularly critical to uphold growth in GDP and living standards. Strengthening competition is especially a promising avenue to boost productivity. Weak competition tends to translate into relatively high prices of goods and services for consumers and firms. Valuable and bold steps have been recently taken to boost competition in key markets, such as rice or professional services. Steps are also being taken in cooperation with the private sector to reduce regulatory burden, by identifying regulations and procedures susceptible to be phased out, including also specific deadlines for their elimination. Providing the national competition authority with the budget granted by law is a pending challenge that would be particularly beneficial at the current juncture when measures to improve regulations and open up key sectors of the economy are being taken. Effective competition authorities, by promoting stronger economic growth, can also have a positive fiscal impact by supporting higher tax revenues.

Informality, at around 45% of total employment, remains high and is both a cause and a consequence of low productivity. A comprehensive strategy is required to reduce it, with actions needed in several policy areas, such as reducing non-wage labour costs, facilitating the creation of formal firms, including by reducing the bureaucratic and economic cost of establishing a formal firm, helping more Costa Rican to acquire the skills needed to access formal jobs, simplifying taxes and enhancing enforcement mechanisms. Experience in some OECD countries, such as Colombia, indicates that reducing non-wage costs, by cutting employer payroll charges, can help to reduce informality. Employer payroll charges in Costa Rica are high in comparison with the OECD average, indicating that there is ample room to move in this direction.

Virtually universal health care and primary education and one of the highest pension coverage in the region have led to remarkable social outcomes. However, Costa Rica faces substantial social challenges, such pas poverty remaining largely unchanged at around 20% over the last 25 years and increasing income inequality. There is room to improve social programmes targeting, as in some cases more than 40% of the beneficiaries are middle and high-income households. There is also room to reduce fragmentation, as 21 institutions are in charge of delivering more than 35 schemes. Better targeting and lower fragmentation would facilitate reinforcing social protection in key areas and reduce inequality.

Improving the quality and efficiency of education and training is also key to support growth and equity in Costa Rica. Even if spending on education is high in Costa Rica, where it amounts to more than 6.5% of GDP, one of the highest shares across OECD countries, educational outcomes remain poor and educational exclusion is still high, with too many Costa Ricans leaving school without an upper-secondary education. A more targeted support to students with learning gaps, improving teachers’ selection and training and expanding access to education to children below four years would help increase equity of opportunities and help more Costa Ricans access better paid formal jobs and firms fill easier their vacancies.

Figure. Without reforms the economy’s growth potential will fall as the demographic bonus fades

Contributions to potential growth, % pts

References:

OECD (2023), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2023, OECD Publishing, Paris.

By Fozan Fareed, Patrick Lenain, Enes Sunel and Douglas Sutherland, OECD Economics Department

Access to financial services is taken for granted by most people. Amenities such as bank accounts, credit cards, cash dispensers, consumer credit and mortgage loans – all essential to our daily lives – are widely available in OECD countries. When individuals face financial hardship, having access to savings set aside in a bank, or obtaining a consumer credit, is particularly useful. Also, digital payments have proved essential during the COVID-19 pandemic to observe safe distancing rules.

However, not everybody enjoys this kind of financial access. Worldwide, about 1.7 billion people did not have access to basic formal financial services in 2017. In OECD countries, many vulnerable people have insufficient knowledge to go beyond rudimentary transactions or are unable to accumulate savings. Not having access to money management can be a serious problem. People facing emergencies, like a large healthcare bill, may not be able to come up with the funds and remain untreated for their illness. Being unable to make online payments and contactless transactions will be a growing problem in the post-pandemic world. Governments often use electronic payments to make rapid social transfers during recessions (Duenwald et al., 2020), such as the US$1,200 payment sent to all U.S. citizens during the first wave of COVID-19, but may be unable to reach some people. The literature finds that financial inclusion matters for access to employment and income generation (Bruhn and Love, 2014), entrepreneurship creation (Fareed et al., 2017) and women empowerment (Karlan et al. 2017; Pitt et al. 2006). This blogpost highlights several insights from our recent research on three countries: Costa Rica [1] (Sunel, 2020), Mexico (Fareed et al, 2017) and the United States (Azzopardi et al. 2019).

Costa Rica: almost one third of adults without financial access

Despite progress made during the past decade, more than 30% of Costa Ricans aged over 15 do not have an account with a financial institution. Insurance penetration is also very limited and stagnant. This low level of financial access is partly explained by the high cost of banking services, which act like a tax on financial transactions. The lack of competition between banks has impaired the reduction of banking costs and intermediation margins seen in other countries, and Fintech have not been allowed to operate fully to provide low-cost solutions to (especially underbanked) consumers.

To get a sense of regional disparities, we built an index summarising the prevalence, at the level of counties, of financial access points, credit operations, bank accounts and financial transactions (Figure 1). Access to financial services is typically low in counties where the population is not dense, but some highly-populated counties, such as Alajuelita and Desamparados in the province of San José and San Rafael and San Pablo in the province of Heredia, also display very low financial inclusion scores. For micro-entrepreneurs, this makes business operations very challenging, especially for women entrepreneurs. Priority groups such as Indigenous people also suffer more than others from financial exclusion. In response, the authorities have launched a National Financial Education Strategy to boost financial literacy of vulnerable populations and linked conditional cash transfer programme beneficiary accounts to debit card accounts to increase financial account ownership.

Figure 1: Financial inclusion disparities in Costa Rica

Source: Banco Central de Costa Rica; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos; and Superintendencia General de Entidades Financieras.

Mexico: over half of Mexicans without a formal bank account

Financial inclusion is even lower in Mexico: more than half of Mexicans aged 15 and over do not have a formal bank account. The penetration of credit, insurance and mobile banking also remains low as compared to regional peers. About 7 million people (6% of the country’s population) live more than 4 miles from the nearest financial access point such as a bank or an ATM according to the financial regulator CNBV. Outside large urban areas, access to financial services is limited and there are prominent regional disparities as highlighted by our financial inclusion index (Figure 2). This is a particular problem for women, who lack access to the banking system and therefore face challenges to launch an entrepreneurship project.

Lack of trust in banks, financial literacy and product design are significant barriers for the many unbanked in Mexico. High commissions and interest rates and poor financial infrastructure are highlighted as some of the main reasons that impede financial inclusion. Addressing these challenges would enable Mexicans, especially women entrepreneurs, to gain access to formal financial services and therefore benefit from new economic opportunities. The authorities have launched a number of actions to address these challenges, for instance the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) provides a roadmap to accelerate access to financial services for the currently unbanked segment of the population.

Figure 2: Financial inclusion disparities in Mexico

Source: Author’s Calculations based on CNBV’s data at the municipality level.
Note: Financial inclusion index ranges from 0 (low) to 1 (high). See Fareed et al. (2017) for details.

United States: 28% of Americans are financially vulnerable

Although financial inclusion is high in the United States, financial vulnerability remains a severe problem for many people, especially low-income households, racial groups, and remote locations. Instead of using an arbitrary definition of financial vulnerability or a single indicator, such as indebtedness, we apply a hierarchical ascending clustering (HAC) and K-means clustering analysis to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finance. The analysis identifies clusters of households with high financial vulnerability: about 28% of the households in 2016 can be classified as financially vulnerable.

Our econometric estimates show that Black and African Americans and Hispanics are financially more vulnerable than non-Hispanic white Americans, after controlling for other characteristics. A higher education level of the household head also appears to be statistically significant and is negatively linked with financial vulnerability. On average, having a college degree decreases the probability of being financially vulnerable. Financial literacy is also an area of concern: only 57% of adults in the United States can be considered financially literate according to the Global Financial Literacy Survey. Moreover, an increase in the age of the household head decreases the chances of being financially vulnerable. Such large differences among clusters of households reflect on the social disparities that affect the U.S. population.

Conclusion

Financial inclusion disparities exacerbate existing wealth inequalities and make it extremely difficult for the financially vulnerable to catch up, threatening social cohesion. Our research on Costa Rica and Mexico shows that access to financial services remains a challenge for many people, while large groups of U.S. households can be characterized as financially vulnerable. Since our research was conducted, it is possible that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened these difficulties: many households have lost their jobs and micro-entrepreneurs have been impacted by government shutdown orders, increasing their financial difficulties. Because low-income households are being hit the hardest, it is more important than ever to facilitate access to financial instruments and encourage money management skills. Our findings suggest that the focus needs to be on closing gender and racial gaps, improving financial literacy, using Fintech responsibly to reach out to financially excluded people, and conducting further research to understand why some households are more at risk than others.

[1] Costa Rica was invited to join the OECD as its 38^th member in May 2020.

REFERENCES

Azzopardi, D., F. Fareed, P. Lenain and D. Sutherland (2019), “Assessing Household Financial Vulnerability: Empirical evidence from the U.S. using machine learning”. https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/75c63aa1-en

Bruhn, M. and I. Love (2014). “The Real Impact of Improved Access to Finance: Evidence from Mexico”. Journal of Finance, 69 (3): 1347-1376.

Fareed, F., M. Gabriel, P. Lenain and Julien Reynaud (2017), “Financial Inclusion and Women Entrepreneurship : Evidence from Mexico”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1411, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/2fbd0f35-en.

Karlan, D., Savonitto, B., Thuysbaert, B., and Udry, C. (2017). “Impact of savings groups on the lives of the poor”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(12), 3079-3084.

Mathai, K., Duenwald, C., Guscina, A., Bukhari, H., Chaudry, A., El-Said, M., Fareed, F., Gerling, K., et al. (2020), “Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia” IMF Departmental Papers. No. 20/12.

Pitt, M. M., Khandker, S. R., and Cartwright, J. (2006). “Empowering women with micro finance: Evidence from Bangladesh”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(4), 791-831.

Sunel, E. (2020), “Boosting access to credit and ensuring financial inclusion for all in Costa Rica”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1623, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/86037778-en.

By Alberto González Pandiella, Patrick Lenain, Mauro Pisu and Enes Sunel

On 15 May 2020, Costa Rica was invited to join the OECD as its 38^th member, marking the successful completion of a thorough review by the organisation, including three OECD Economic Surveys (OECD, 2016; OECD, 2018a; and OECD, 2020). This “journey” towards accession involved multiple reforms to boost the country’s economic growth and distribute its benefits to all Costa Ricans. Thanks to these ongoing reforms, Costa Rica is better prepared to confront the COVID-19 crisis and to boost its long-term growth.

Steady and resilient growth

With a strong commitment towards trade openness, Costa Rica has attracted large inflows of foreign direct investment, helping to move up the value chain and upgrade the composition of its exports. The country has also been a magnet of international tourism thanks to its rich natural capital, especially its biodiversity and rainforest, and policies to protect it. These factors, together with rising real incomes, have sustained steady and resilient growth, with quick rebounds following exogenous shocks (Figure 1). Real GDP per capita has consequently tripled over the past 30 years and reached nearly USD 20 000 in 2019, close to the Latin American average (OECD, 2018a).

The COVID-19 outbreak has however inflicted a severe hit to economic activity, jobs, and the well-being of Costa Ricans. Innovative policy measures introduced to provide cash and liquidity support to households and firms will help to avoid long-term damages. However, the return to a normal situation is mired with very large uncertainties and depend on epidemiological developments and the speed of the global recovery.

Recent reforms will boost the productivity of local firms

Apart from the coronavirus outbreak, Costa Rica faces several challenges to continue its past performance.  The process of income convergence in emerging economies typically involves increasing productivity towards the “frontier” prevailing in advanced economies. However, in Costa Rica labour productivity growth has lagged peers for many years. Low productivity levels explain to a large extent the income gap with OECD countries (Figure 2). In 2016, GDP per hour worked was only USD 18.6 compared with an OECD average of USD 51.9 (OECD, 2018b).

Openness to foreign direct investment can help to revert these trends. Research published by the OECD shows a positive correlation between the presence of foreign firms and the productivity of local Costa Rican firms in both the manufacturing and the services sectors (OECD, 2018c). Research has also found that public policy to boost linkages between foreign-owned and local firms helps knowledge diffusion (Alfaro-Urena et al., 2019). Nonetheless, Costa Rica remains a dual economy, with a modern sector in free trade zones and traditional enterprises outside them. To boost aggregate productivity the government policy should therefore continue to stimulate the productivity of local firms.

Recent reforms have sought to stimulate business dynamism by enhancing product-market competition and levelling the playing field between state-owned firms and the private sector. As a part of the OECD accession process, legislation adopted by Congress has strengthened the competition authorities and curtailed political interference in state-owned enterprises. Tentative estimates suggest that these two reforms, when fully implemented, could boost the level of GDP per capita by nearly 10% within 5 years – a very significant improvement (OECD, 2020). Closing existing gaps in transport infrastructure, particularly roads, would also have a large productivity pay-off (Pisu and Villabos, 2016).

A fiscal reform to address budgetary challenges

The COVID-19 crisis will increase budget deficits around the world. This along with large drops in nominal GDP will result in higher public debt ratios. Costa Rica is not an exception, with its budget deficit projected to reach 9% of GDP in 2020. This is a large deficit but is, to a large extent, attributable to the deteriorated fiscal position inherited from the past (Figure 3), which has limited the government’s capacity to respond to the COVID-19 shock. Before the pandemic struck, high public debt and low ratings from credit agencies put Costa Rica’s borrowing costs above those of peer Latin American countries. With fast-rising interest payments and large borrowing requirements (projected to reach 15% of GDP in 2021), government policy will need to focus once again on reducing the budget deficit. 

The ambitious fiscal reform approved by Congress in December 2018 will provide the necessary framework to bring down public debt. The approval of this reform, which had been in the works for nearly two decades, has been a major step toward restoring fiscal sustainability. The legislation introduced a VAT system, more progressive income tax rates, and a spending rule constraining government outlays when public debt reaches specific thresholds. If fully implemented, the reform is expected to yield cumulated savings of 3.9 % of GDP over 2019–23. Policy efforts will need also to rationalise the remuneration of public sector workers, which has been growing above private sector wages for a long time, contributing to a high level of income inequality (González-Pandiella and Gabriel, 2017).

Costa Rica’s journey towards OECD membership has already involved many important reforms, which have the potential to boost long-term economic growth and inclusiveness, and improve fiscal sustainability.  But, achieving the OECD membership is not the end of the journey. As a member of the OECD, Costa Rica will be in a better position to design and implement better policies by exchanging views, policy lessons and best practices with other member countries. This can inform the national dialogue and political debates on policies to boost economic performance and share its benefits among all Costa Ricans. Other countries will also learn from Costa Rica’s valuable experiences in areas such as attracting foreign direct investment, diversifying the exports basket, preserving natural resources or ecotourism, making it a really good journey for all.

REFERENCES

Alfaro-Urena, Alonso and Manelici, Isabela and Vasquez, Jose P. (2019), The Effects of Joining Multinational Supply Chains: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Linkages, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3376129.

González Pandiella, A. and M. Gabriel (2017), “Deconstructing income inequality in Costa Rica: An income source decomposition approach”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1377, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/77759015-en.

OECD (2020), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2020, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/2e0fea6c-en.

OECD (2018a), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2018, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-cri-2018-en.

OECD (2018b), “Setting the scene: An overview of Costa Rica’s productivity performance”, in OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica: Research Findings on Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298774-2-en.

OECD (2018c), “FDI spillovers in Costa Rica: boosting local productivity through backward linkages”, in OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica: Research Findings on Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298774-3-en.

OECD (2016), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2016: Economic Assessment, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-cri-2016-en.

Pisu, M. and F. Villalobos (2016), “A bird-eye view of Costa Rica’s transport infrastructure”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1323, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlswbwvwqjf-en.

Por Alberto González Pandiella, Patrick Lenain, Mauro Pisu y Enes Sunel

El 15 de mayo de 2020, Costa Rica fue invitada a unirse a la OCDE como su miembro número 38, lo que marca el final de un proceso de revisión exhaustiva por parte de la organización, incluidas tres estudios económicos de la OCDE (OCDE, 2016; OCDE, 2018a y OCDE, 2020). Este camino hacia la adhesión implicó iniciar múltiples reformas para impulsar el crecimiento económico y distribuir sus beneficios a todos los costarricenses. Gracias a las reformas en curso, Costa Rica está mejor preparada para enfrentar la crisis de COVID-19 e impulsar su crecimiento a largo plazo.

Crecimiento estable y resistente

Con un fuerte compromiso con la apertura comercial, Costa Rica ha atraído grandes flujos de inversión extranjera directa. Esto ha ayudado a progresar en la cadena de valor y mejorar la composición de sus exportaciones. El país también ha sido un imán para el turismo internacional. Esto ha sido gracias a su rico capital natural, especialmente su biodiversidad y la gran extensión de selva tropical, y a las políticas para protegerlo. Estos factores, junto con el aumento de los ingresos reales, han permitido un crecimiento constante y resistente, con rápidas recuperaciones a los shocks exógenos (Figura 1). El PIB real per cápita se ha triplicado en los últimos 30 años y alcanzó casi USD20,000 en 2019, cerca del promedio latinoamericano (OCDE, 2018a).

Sin embargo, el brote de COVID-19 ha infligido un duro golpe a la actividad económica, el empleo y el bienestar de los costarricenses. Se han puesto en marcha innovadoras medidas para proporcionar apoyo monetario y liquidez a los hogares y las empresas afectadas, ayudando a evitar daños a largo plazo. Sin embargo, el retorno a una situación normal está plagado de grandes incertidumbres y depende del desarrollo epidemiológico de la pandemia y la velocidad de la recuperación global.

Las reformas recientes impulsarán la productividad de las empresas locales

Además del brote de coronavirus, Costa Rica enfrenta varios desafíos para continuar con su desempeño anterior. El proceso de convergencia de ingresos en las economías emergentes generalmente implica aumentar la productividad hacia la “frontera” que prevalece en las economías avanzadas. Sin embargo, en Costa Rica, el crecimiento de la productividad laboral ha quedado rezagado con respecto a sus pares durante muchos años. Los bajos niveles de productividad explican en gran medida la brecha de ingresos con los países de la OCDE (Figura 2). En 2016, el PIB por hora trabajada fue de solo USD 18.6 en comparación con un promedio de la OCDE de USD 51.9 (OCDE, 2018b).

La apertura a la inversión extranjera directa puede ayudar a revertir estas tendencias. La investigación publicada por la OCDE muestra una correlación positiva entre la presencia de empresas extranjeras y la productividad de las empresas costarricenses locales en los sectores manufacturero y de servicios (OCDE, 2018c). La investigación también ha encontrado que la política pública para impulsar los vínculos entre las empresas locales y de propiedad extranjera ayuda a la difusión del conocimiento (Alfaro-Urena et al., 2019). No obstante, Costa Rica sigue siendo una economía dual, con un sector moderno en zonas de libre comercio y empresas tradicionales fuera de ellas. Para impulsar la productividad agregada, la política gubernamental debería continuar estimulando la productividad de las empresas locales.

Las reformas recientes han tratado de estimular el dinamismo empresarial mejorando la competencia en el mercado de productos y nivelando el campo de juego entre las empresas estatales y el sector privado. Como parte del proceso de adhesión a la OCDE, la legislación adoptada por el Congreso ha fortalecido a las autoridades de competencia y reducido la interferencia política en las empresas estatales. Las estimaciones provisionales sugieren que estas dos reformas, cuando se implementen por completo, podrían aumentar el nivel del PIB per cápita en casi un 10% en 5 años, una mejora muy significativa (OCDE, 2020). Cerrar las brechas existentes en la infraestructura de transporte, en particular las carreteras, también tendría una gran efecto positivo (Pisu y Villabos, 2016).

Una reforma fiscal para abordar los desafíos presupuestarios

La crisis de COVID-19 aumentará los déficits presupuestarios en todo el mundo. Esto, junto con grandes caídas en el PIB nominal, dará como resultado ratios de deuda pública más altos. Costa Rica no es una excepción, ya que se prevé que el déficit presupuestario alcance el 9% del PIB en 2020. Este es un gran déficit, pero es, en gran medida, atribuible al deterioro de la posición fiscal heredada del pasado (Figura 3), que ha limitado la capacidad del gobierno para responder al shock COVID-19. Antes de que se desatara la pandemia, la alta deuda pública y las bajas calificaciones de las agencias de crédito ya habían colocado los costos de endeudamiento de Costa Rica por encima de los de los países latinoamericanos pares. Con el rápido aumento de los pagos de intereses y las grandes necesidades de financiación (que se proyecta alcanzarán el 15% del PIB en 2021), la política gubernamental deberá centrarse una vez más en reducir el déficit presupuestario.

La ambiciosa reforma fiscal aprobada por el Congreso en diciembre de 2018 proporcionará el marco necesario para reducir la deuda pública. La aprobación de esta reforma, que había estado en discusión durante casi dos décadas, ha sido un paso importante hacia la sostenibilidad fiscal. La legislación introdujo un sistema de IVA, tasas de impuesto sobre la renta más progresivas y una regla de gasto que limita el crecimiento del gasto del gobierno cuando la deuda pública alcanza umbrales específicos. Si se implementa completamente, se espera que la reforma produzca ahorros acumulados del 3.9% del PIB durante 2019–23. Es pertinente también realizar esfuerzos para racionalizar la remuneración de los trabajadores del sector público, que ha estado creciendo por encima de los salarios del sector privado durante mucho tiempo, contribuyendo a un alto nivel de desigualdad de ingresos (González Pandiella y Gabriel, 2017).

El viaje de Costa Rica hacia la membresía de la OCDE ya ha involucrado muchas reformas importantes, que tienen el potencial de impulsar el crecimiento económico y la inclusión a largo plazo, y mejorar la sostenibilidad fiscal. Pero lograr la membresía de la OCDE no es el final del viaje. Como miembro de la OCDE, Costa Rica estará en una mejor posición para diseñar e implementar mejores políticas mediante el intercambio de puntos de vista, experiencias y mejores prácticas con otros países miembros. Esto puede orientar el diálogo nacional y los debates políticos sobre políticas para impulsar el desempeño económico y compartir sus beneficios entre todos los costarricenses. Otros países también aprenderán de las valiosas experiencias de Costa Rica en áreas como atraer inversión extranjera directa, diversificar la canasta de exportaciones, preservar los recursos naturales o el ecoturismo, lo que hará de este viaje un buen viaje para todos.

Referencias

Alfaro-Urena, Alonso, Manelici, Isabela y Vasquez, Jose P. (2019), The Effects of Joining Multinational Supply Chains: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Linkages, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3376129.

González Pandiella, A. y M. Gabriel (2017), “Deconstructing income inequality in Costa Rica: An income source decomposition approach”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1377, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/77759015-en.

OECD (2020), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2020, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/2e0fea6c-en.

OECD (2018a), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2018, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-cri-2018-en.

OECD (2018b), “Setting the scene: An overview of Costa Rica’s productivity performance”, in OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica: Research Findings on Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298774-2-en.

OECD (2018c), “FDI spillovers in Costa Rica: boosting local productivity through backward linkages”, in OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica: Research Findings on Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298774-3-en.

OECD (2016), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2016: Economic Assessment, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-cri-2016-en.

Pisu, M. y F. Villalobos (2016), “A bird-eye view of Costa Rica’s transport infrastructure”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1323, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlswbwvwqjf-en.

By Jens Arnold, Paula Garda, Alberto Gonzalez-Pandiella, OECD Economics Department

Social distancing has led to sharp declines in mobility and activity across Latin America. Widespread informality creates particular challenges for the livelihoods of many workers. As their activities are shut down to contain the spread of COVID-19, informal workers or small entrepreneurs are usually not covered by social protection. Largely out of reach of the public sector, they easily fall through the cracks of emergency income support measures. This has highlighted a major need to rethink and strengthen social protection mechanisms in Latin America. Providing more complete social safety nets that are not tied to formal employment and that can react rapidly to income losses would be one solution. In many countries in the region, such safety nets could be built on the basis of existing conditional cash transfer programmes.

Informal workers and small entrepreneurs account for a significant share of the workforce across Latin America (Figure 1). Most of them have no access to social protection, and almost no savings to carry them through the trough. Informal employees were the first to lose their jobs, while self-employed entrepreneurs such as street sellers and small service providers were left with no source of income as streets became empty. Working from home may be a solution for educated middle-class workers, but it is out of reach for the most vulnerable (Mongey and Weinbergy, 2020).

The crisis has exposed shortcomings in existing social protection mechanisms

Governments in Latin America responded swiftly to the unprecedented challenges posed by COVID-19. Many countries designed temporary support measures, building on existing instruments such as formal-sector unemployment insurance and cash transfers. Formal-sector employees benefitted from more flexible access to unemployment benefits, for example in Brazil and Chile, while temporary short-time work schemes, wage subsidies or lower labour contributions helped to preserve formal labour contracts Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and several Mexican states. Cash transfer schemes targeted to low-income households play important roles in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Uruguay, among others. These cash transfer schemes are typically based on large locally-maintained registries of low-income households that can consider both formal and informal incomes. Providing additional resources to these schemes allowed to raise benefit levels and/or expand coverage, including by eliminating previous enrolment waiting lists, as in the cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

The COVID-19 policy response, however, has also exposed significant gaps in existing social safety networks. Amid policy support for formal workers and for the poor, vulnerable households whose livelihoods depend on informal activities are often left without any social protection mechanism to fall on. Before the pandemic, many of these had successfully escaped poverty and gained incomes above the threshold where they would qualify for cash transfers, but without gaining access to the kind of social protection in place for formal employees. As distancing measures led to unprecedented declines in demand, many of these households were left without any income.

Reaching informal workers is a challenge for public policies and has required innovative ideas. Beyond the grasp of income tax systems, and with no access to social benefits, many informal workers have traditionally been outside the radar of the state. In addition, they often lack access to banking services, so governments had to respond creatively and ensure the creation of basic bank accounts for emergency benefit recipients. More than 50 million Brazilians used a smartphone application to receive an emergency benefit established after the outbreak. Colombia has been similarly successful, paying out benefits to 1.5 million households previously not covered by social benefits, and including free digital banking products. Chile is supporting more than 2 million vulnerable and informal households through different cash transfers, handing out debit cards to those without a bank account. Costa Rica’s new cash transfer also offers the creation of a bank account. Such programmes have replaced significant shares of pre-crisis incomes for low-income households (Busso et al., 2020).

Lessons for the future

Building more effective universal social safety nets that include informal workers and entrepreneurs emerges as one of the main lessons from the COVID-19 crisis and the social unrest during 2019. Given their wide reach in many countries, existing cash-transfer programmes would be the most straightforward basis for effective social safety nets (Figure 2, Panel A). In several countries, eligibility is in principle universal, but in practice, enrolment processes are too slow or cumbersome to help people in the face of sudden income losses. An important step would therefore be to make cash transfer programmes more agile, so that they can disburse quickly when people lose their livelihoods, following the examples of the UK’s Universal Credit or Malaysia’s BSH programme. More universal social safety nets based on means-tested cash transfers could also help to reduce the widespread fragmentation of social programmes, and strengthen their effectiveness.

Financing universal social safety nets will require additional resources, but building on existing programmes may make the cost manageable. Cash transfer schemes are among the most cost-efficient social expenditure programmes, and they cost relatively little (Figure 2, Panel B). Brazil’s successful Bolsa Família programme, for example, currently only costs 0.5% of GDP, compared with 12% spent on formal social security schemes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, additional spending of 0.04% of GDP was enough to eliminate an accumulated queue of 1 million benefit applicants. Building on existing citizen identification systems and digital technologies could further reduce costs.

Social protection for informal workers should go along with efforts to foster formalisation. Reviewing non-wage labour costs can help to reduce informality, as illustrated by Colombia’s 2012 tax reform. Costly and complex business regulations, including those for starting a formal business, also hamper the formalisation of firms and jobs. Expanding the use of one-stop shops for business regulations would be one way forward. Social programmes could increasingly integrate training and lifelong learning for informal workers. This could create a virtuous circle between formal employment, growth and equity.

Alvaro S. Pereira (Director) and Latin American desks, Economics Department, Country Studies Branch, OECD

The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but it has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid.  Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs while  many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies. The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019-20. However, downside risks abound and policy makers will have to steer their  economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth.

The economic recovery in the Latin American economies has become dissimilar. While in some countries, growth has been revised downwards, in others it has been revised upwards. This disparity is closely linked to how these economies have evolved in the face of the financial stress and increased financial volatility in recent months. The region’s economies with the best macroeconomic fundamentals, independent central banks, countercyclical monetary policies, sound fiscal policy framework and no major currency mismatches in corporate or sovereign debt, were better able to sail the adverse global financial conditions that led to capital outflows, weakening their currencies.

While Chile and Colombia have gained momentum, Brazil has shown lower growth and Argentina has fallen into recession. Mexico and Costa Rica have also experienced less momentum than expected. Growth in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico, countries covering about 85% of Latin America’s GDP, is expected to be around 1.4% this year and to accelerate to 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020 (weighted average) (see Table). However, downside risks abound while the region is vulnerable to the global context. Several indicators, such as the fiscal and current account deficits have been accentuated in the last decade in most of these economies (Figure), suggesting that the region is still vulnerable. Needs to be noted that the situation is uneven and a broader list of indicators should be analysed.

An accumulation of risks could create the conditions for a harder-than-expected landing. First, further trade tensions would take a toll on trade and GDP growth, generating even more uncertainty for business plans and investment. Second, tightening financial conditions could accelerate capital outflows from the region and depress demand further. Third, a sharp slowdown in China would hit Latin America and other emerging economies, but also advanced economies if the demand shock in China triggered a significant decline in global equity prices and higher global risk premia.

Looking ahead, it will be necessary to strengthen the macroeconomic policy framework to reduce vulnerabilities where necessary. Most of the region’s economies are starting, or will start in the near future, more restrictive monetary policies, while also undertaking fiscal consolidation. Depending on each country, it will be important to find a balance between the needs for social spending and public investment, with the need to put debt on a sustainable path. In Chile, Colombia and Mexico, this consolidation can be done gradually, but Argentina, Brazil and Costa Rica need to do it more urgently. Pension or tax reforms will be necessary in this regard.

Given the limited scope for countercyclical policies, in the face of external risks and a more pronounced slowdown, the time to promote the necessary structural reforms is now to guarantee a future with a sustained increase in productivity and greater inclusion. Many countries in the region have scope to reform the tax system and make it more effective in improving investment incentives and raising more resources. Depending on the characteristics of each country, possible measures may include limiting the use of tax exemptions and reduced rates, particularly in VAT, but also in corporate taxes, extending the tax base by including more people in personal income taxes, reducing evasion or making greater use of property, inheritance or environmental taxes. Other priorities should focus on export promotion and diversification, which would help reduce current account deficits. Investing in quality and innovative human capital, closing infrastructure and logistical gaps, and curbing corruption would support exports and their diversification, strengthening growth. Encouraging women’s participation in the labour force, reducing precariousness and informality in the labour market, as well as pension reforms are also urgent in several countries of the region and necessary to increase productivity and reduce inequalities.

Argentina: A combination of massive fiscal and monetary tightening will keep the economy in recession during 2018 and 2019. Private consumption and investment will remain depressed due to lower real incomes and high interest rates, and unemployment will rise. However, a better harvest and a lower real exchange rate will support stronger exports.

Brazil: Growth will gain momentum during 2019 and 2020 as private consumption, supported by improvements in the labour market, will increase. Recovering credit and greater policy certainty as a new administration takes office will buttress the recovery. Political uncertainty around the implementation of reforms remains significant and could derail the recovery, but if uncertainty fades and reforms advance as assumed, investment will become stronger.

Chile: Growth is projected to remain strong over the next two years. With an uncertain external environment, solid domestic demand will underpin growth, aided by a stable inflation environment, public infrastructure projects and a tax reform. Inequality, though  decreasing, remains high, as informality and unemployment remain high and social transfers low.

Colombia: Growth is projected to pick up as infrastructure projects, lower corporate taxes and higher oil prices will boost investment. Improving confidence and financing conditions will support consumption. As growth gains traction, unemployment will edge down. Social indicators are improving but informality and inequality remain high.

Costa Rica: Growth is projected to recover to around 3¼ per cent in 2020 and be broad-based, underpinned by both domestic and external demand. However, uncertainty, particularly surrounding the planned fiscal reforms, is weighing on growth in the near term. The projections are based on the assumption that the fiscal reforms will be implemented from 2019, with modest fiscal tightening holding back growth in 2019 and 2020.

Mexico: Growth is projected to pick up to 2¾ per cent in 2020. Low unemployment, strong remittances and the recovery of real wages  will support household consumption. Investment, which has been persistently low, will strengthen on the back of announced public investment plans and increased confidence associated with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Exports will decelerate owing to less favourable global conditions, especially in the United States. Inflation has been pushed up by rising energy prices, but expectations and core inflation remain anchored and within the central bank’s target band. Informality is slowly declining but remains elevated,  contributing to persistently high inequalities and low productivity.

To read more about the Economic Outlook and the main structural challenges visit the english and spanish/portuguese version (it includes OECD forecasts and a chapter on decoupling of wages and productivity and the implications for public policy).

References:

OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_outlook-v2018-2-en.

Alvaro S. Pereira (Director) y mesas de países latinoamericanos, Departamento de Economía, Directorado de estudios de países, OCDE

La economía mundial está navegando mares agitados. El crecimiento del PIB mundial es fuerte, pero ha alcanzado su punto máximo. En muchos países, el desempleo está por debajo de los niveles anteriores a la crisis de 2008, la escasez de mano de obra se empieza a sentir, aunque la inflación sigue siendo templada. Sin embargo, el comercio y la inversión mundiales se han desacelerado como consecuencia del incremento de aranceles bilaterales y de mayor incertidumbre política, mientras que varias economías emergentes están experimentando salidas de capitales y un debilitamiento de sus monedas. La recuperación del crecimiento global  comenzará a desacelerarse, mientras que los riesgos a la baja se han acentuado. Se prevé que el crecimiento del PIB mundial disminuya del 3,7% en 2018 a 3,5% en 2019-2020. Sin embargo, abundan los riesgos de recesión y los responsables políticos tendrán que orientar cuidadosamente sus economías hacia un crecimiento sostenible, aunque más modesto, del PIB.

En las principales economías de América Latina, la recuperación económica se ha vuelto despareja. Mientras que en algunas, el crecimiento se ha revisado a la baja, en otras se ha revisado al alza. Esta disparidad está estrechamente ligada a cómo estas economías han evolucionado frente al estrés financiero e incremento de volatilidad financiera de los pasados meses. Las economías de la región con mejores fundamentos macroeconómicos, bancos centrales independientes, políticas monetarias contracíclicas, un marco de política fiscal sólido y sin grande descalce de monedas en la deuda corporativa o soberana, fueron los que sortearon mejor las condiciones financieras globales adversas que sometieron a varios países a una repentina salida de capitales y debilitamiento de sus monedas.

Mientras que Chile y Colombia han ganado ímpetu, Brasil ha mostrado menor crecimiento y Argentina ha caído en recesión. México y Costa Rica también han experimentado menor ímpetu al esperado. Se espera que el crecimiento en Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica y México, países que cubren alrededor del 85% del PIB de América Latina, se sitúe en torno al 1.4% este año y se acelere a 2.0% en 2019 y 2.7% en 2020 (promedio ponderado) (Tabla). Sin embargo, abundan los riesgos a la baja, mientras que la región se encuentra vulnerable al contexto global. Algunos indicadores, como los déficits fiscales y de cuenta corriente (Figura) se han acentuado en la mayoría de estas economías en la última década, sugiriendo que la región es aún vulnerable. Debe notarse que la situación es dispar y se debe mirarse una lista más amplia de indicadores.

Una acumulación de riesgos podría crear las condiciones para una desaceleración de crecimiento más acentuada de la esperada. En primer lugar, nuevas tensiones comerciales afectarían al comercio y al crecimiento del PIB, generando aún más incertidumbre para las empresas y la inversión. En segundo lugar, el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras globales podría acelerar las salidas de capitales y deprimir aún más las monedas de la región. En tercer lugar, una fuerte desaceleración en China afectaría a la región y otras economías emergentes, pero también a las economías avanzadas si el shock de la demanda en China provocara un descenso significativo de los precios mundiales de las acciones y un aumento de las primas de riesgo mundiales.

De cara al futuro, será necesario reforzar el marco de las políticas macroeconómicas para reducir vulnerabilidades donde sea necesario. La mayor parte de las economías de la región están comenzando, o lo harán en el futuro próximo, políticas monetarias más restrictivas, al tiempo que también deben llevar a cabo una consolidación fiscal. Dependiendo de las holguras de cada país, será importante encontrar un ritmo que balancee las necesidades de gasto social y de inversión pública, con la necesidad de poner la deuda en una senda sustentable. En Chile, Colombia y México, esta consolidación se puede llevar a cabo de manera gradual, pero Argentina, Brasil y Costa Rica necesitan hacerlo de manera más urgente. Reformas pensionales o tributarias serán necesarias en este sentido.

Dado el escaso margen para hacer políticas contracíclicas ante la realización de riesgos externos y una deceleración más acentuada, el momento de impulsar reformas estructurales necesarias es ahora, para garantizar un futuro con incremento sostenido de la productividad y mayor inclusión. Muchos países de la región tienen margen para reformar el sistema tributario y hacerlo más eficaz para mejorar los incentivos a la inversión y recaudar más recursos. Según las características de cada país, posibles medidas pueden incluir limitar el uso de exenciones tributarias y tasas reducidas, en particular en el IVA, pero también en los corporativos, extender las bases de imposición incluyendo más personas en los impuestos a los ingresos personales, reducir la evasión o hacer mayor uso de impuestos a la propiedad, a la herencia o impuestos ambientales. Otras prioridades deberían focalizarse en fomentar las exportaciones, y diversificarlas, lo que ayudaría a reducir los déficits de cuenta corriente. Invertir en capital humano de calidad e innovación, cerrar las brechas de infraestructura y logística y frenar la corrupción apoyarían a las exportaciones y su diversificación, fortaleciendo el crecimiento. Alentar la participación de la mujer en la fuerza laboral, reducir la precariedad e informalidad del mercado laboral, así como reformas al sistema de pensiones son también urgentes en varios países de la región y necesarios para aumentar la productividad y bajar las desigualdades.

Argentina: La economía seguirá en recesión en 2018 y 2019 debido a un endurecimiento fuerte y simultáneo de políticas monetarias y fiscales. El consumo privado y la inversión seguirán siendo bajos a causa del descenso de los ingresos reales y de los elevados tipos de interés, y aumentará el desempleo. Sin embargo, una mejor cosecha y un tipo de cambio real más competitivo contribuirán al aumento de las exportaciones.

Brasil: El crecimiento cobrará impulso en 2019 y 2020 gracias al aumento del consumo privado, respaldado por mejoras en el mercado laboral. La reactivación del crédito y el descenso de la incertidumbre política una vez que el nuevo gobierno tome posesión apuntalarán la recuperación económica. La incertidumbre política sobre la implementación de reformas sigue siendo importante y podría frenar la recuperación pero, si desaparece y las reformas siguen adelante como se supone que deberían hacerlo, aumentará la inversión.

Chile: Según las proyecciones, el crecimiento seguirá aumentando en los próximos dos años. Ante una incierta coyuntura externa, el crecimiento estará respaldado por la sólida demanda interna con ayuda de un entorno de inflación estable, proyectos de infraestructuras públicas y una reforma fiscal. A pesar que las desigualdades han disminuido, permanecen altas, debido a que la informalidad y el desempleo siguen siendo elevados y las transferencias sociales escasas.

Colombia: Las proyecciones indican que el crecimiento repuntará, ya que los proyectos de infraestructuras, el descenso del impuesto de sociedades y la subida de los precios del petróleo potenciarán la inversión. La mejora de la confianza y de las condiciones de financiamiento respaldará el consumo. A medida que el crecimiento se vaya afianzando, el desempleo descenderá. Los indicadores sociales están mejorando, aunque la informalidad y la desigualdad se mantendrán en niveles elevados.

Costa Rica: Según las proyecciones, el crecimiento se recuperará hasta el 3¼ aproximadamente en 2020 y será generalizado, sostenido tanto por la demanda interna como externa. Sin embargo, la incertidumbre, particularmente respecto a las reformas fiscales planificadas está lastrando el crecimiento a corto plazo. Las proyecciones parten del supuesto de que las reformas fiscales se aplicarán a partir de 2019, con un modesto ajuste fiscal que frenará el crecimiento en 2019 y 2020.

México: Está previsto que el crecimiento repunte hasta el 2¾ por ciento hacia 2020. El bajo nivel de desempleo, fuertes remesas y la recuperación de los salarios reales reforzarán el consumo de los hogares. La inversión, que ha sido persistentemente baja, se reforzará a consecuencia de los planes de inversión públicos anunciados y del aumento de la confianza vinculado al acuerdo comercial entre Estados Unidos, México y Canadá. El crecimiento de las exportaciones se reducirá debido a unas condiciones internacionales menos favorables, en especial en Estados Unidos. La subida de los precios de la energía ha empujado la inflación al alza, pero las expectativas y la inflación subyacente siguen ancladas y dentro del rango meta del banco central. El alto nivel de informalidad contribuye a que haya una gran desigualdad y una escasa productividad.

Para leer en más detalle sobre las proyecciones macroeconómicas, así como los principales desafíos estructurales ir al reporte en la versión español/portugués o inglés (que incluye proyecciones para países de la OECD, principales desafíos y un capítulo especial sobre la desvinculación de los salarios y la productividad y las implicancias en términos de políticas públicas).

Por Sonia Araujo y Lisa Meehan, Sección de Costa Rica, Departamento de Economía de la OCDE

La economía de Costa Rica es sólida y continúa convergiendo hacia los niveles de vida de los países miembros de la OCDE (Figura 1). Si bien la productividad ha repuntado recientemente, sigue habiendo una gran brecha con respecto a la de los países de la OCDE. Las tasas de empleo son bajas y el desempleo sigue por encima de los niveles previos a la crisis, afectando predominantemente a los jóvenes y a quienes están poco calificados. Como resultado, y en contra de la tendencia general en América Latina, la informalidad y la desigualdad no están disminuyendo (Figura 2). La OCDE, en su reciente Estudio Económico de Costa Rica, encuentra que las regulaciones anticompetitivas y la alta segmentación del mercado laboral obstaculizan la materialización plena de oportunidades para hacer que el crecimiento sea más inclusivo. Para poner en marcha un “círculo virtuoso” de crecimiento inclusivo será necesario adoptar reformas en varias áreas de políticas que presentan oportunidades beneficiosas para todos, en términos de equidad y mejoras de la productividad.

En primer lugar, existen obstáculos importantes al emprendedurismo, amplias exenciones antimonopolio y alto control estatal en muchos sectores. Aportarían grandes beneficios de crecimiento medidas orientadas a mejorar la gobernanza de las empresas estatales según las normas de la OCDE, establecer ventanillas únicas para el registro y la concesión de licencias, simplificar los procedimientos de insolvencia, eliminar las exenciones antimonopolio y mejorar la facilitación del comercio.

Segundo, Costa Rica debe implementar una estrategia integral para combatir la informalidad, que incluya una mayor exigencia al cumplimiento con las obligaciones de pago de contribuciones y la continuación de la reducción de la compleja estructura del salario mínimo, lo que agrava los costos de las empresas y desalienta la formalización laboral. Costa Rica debe de continuar reduciendo su compleja estructura actual de 23 salarios mínimos bajo categorías sectoriales, ocupacionales, de niveles educativos y de habilidades.

En tercer lugar, la educación debería seguir siendo una prioridad política como estrategia para pasar a niveles de ingresos más altos y responder al cambio estructural en curso hacia actividades de mayor valor agregado. Pero Costa Rica obtiene muy poco de su inversión sustancial en educación. Con casi un 8% del PIB, el gasto en educación es más alto que en todos los países de la OCDE. Sin embargo, los resultados de las pruebas PISA revelan que un tercio de los estudiantes carecen de competencias básicas y los resultados están fuertemente influenciados por los antecedentes socioeconómicos. Los recursos deben canalizarse a la educación secundaria, donde hay crecientes presiones demográficas y una necesidad de aumentar el acceso y la educación, y hacia la educación y atención infantil, para que todos los niños puedan desarrollar plenamente su potencial. Se debe brindar un apoyo más focalizado y dirigido a los estudiantes en riesgo desde el principio del proceso educativo. En general, el gobierno debería hacer la transición del enfoque actual basado en los recursos y el financiamiento hacia uno basado en el logro de resultados, así como establecer una meta clara y verificable basada en el desempeño para medir el éxito de sus políticas educativas.

Pero la mayor amenaza para el crecimiento y los niveles de vida en el mediano plazo sigue siendo la sostenibilidad fiscal. El déficit presupuestario superó el 5% del PIB en los últimos cinco años. Los esfuerzos recientes para aumentar la recaudación de impuestos no han reducido el déficit presupuestario, debido al amplio uso de la asignación obligatoria de fondos, la fragmentación del sector público en instituciones autónomas y las obligaciones de gasto vía legislación. Como resultado, la deuda del gobierno central se ha disparado de menos del 25% del PIB en 2008 al 49% en 2017 (Figura 3). Se necesita con urgencia un paquete de reforma fiscal integral que permita estabilizar la relación de deuda a PIB. Existe un amplio margen para recaudar ingresos adicionales ampliando la base tributaria y continuando en la lucha contra la evasión y elusión fiscal. Sin embargo, el aumento de los ingresos fiscales no ayudará a contener el déficit, a menos que se restrinja la marcada asignación de recursos con destinos específicos. Reformar la estructura salarial del sector público, fortalecer el marco presupuestario con una nueva regla fiscal que sea operativa y mejorar la gestión de la deuda, son medidas que contribuirían a equilibrar el presupuesto.

Referencias
Estudios Económicos de la OCDE: Costa Rica 2018

By Sonia Araujo and Lisa Meehan, Costa Rica Desk, OECD Economics Department

Costa Rica’s economy is strong and continues to converge towards OECD living standards (Figure 1). Although productivity has picked up recently, a wide gap relative to the OECD remains. Employment rates are low and unemployment remains above pre-crisis levels, hitting predominantly youth and the low skilled. And against the general trend in Latin America, informality and inequality are not declining (Figure 2). The OECD 2018 Economic Survey of Costa Rica finds that anti-competitive regulations and high labour market segmentation hinder the full realisation of opportunities to make growth more inclusive. Setting in motion a ‘virtuous cycle’ of inclusive growth will require reforms across several policy areas that present win-win opportunities in terms of equity and productivity improvements.

First, there are high barriers to entrepreneurship, anti-trust exemptions and state control in many sectors. Improving state-owned enterprises’ governance according to OECD standards, establishing one-stop shops for business registration and licensing, streamlining insolvency procedures, removing anti-trust exemptions and enhancing trade facilitation would bring large growth benefits.

Second, Costa Rica should implement a comprehensive strategy to fight informality, including greater enforcement of compliance and by continuing to reduce the complex minimum wage structure, which increases firms’ costs and discourages job formalisation. Costa Rica should continue to simplify its complex web of 23 sectoral, occupation, education attainment and skill minimum wages.

Third, education should remain a policy priority as a strategy to move to higher income levels and respond to the ongoing structural change towards higher value-added activities. But Costa Rica obtains too little from its substantial investment in education. At almost 8% of GDP, education spending is higher than in all OECD countries. However, PISA results reveal that one third of students lack core competencies and outcomes are strongly influenced by socio-economic background. Resources need to be channelled to secondary education, where there are growing demographic pressures and a need to increase access, and early childhood education and care, in order for all children to fully realise their potential. More focused, targeted support should also be given to students at risk early on. Overall, the government should move from the current focus on resources and funding to outcomes, and establish clear and verifiable performance based targets against which to measure the success of its education policies.

But the major threat to growth and living standards in the medium term continues to be fiscal sustainability. The budget deficit has exceeded 5% of GDP for the past five years. Recent efforts to increase tax collection have not reduced the budget deficit due to the extensive use of earmarking, public sector fragmentation into autonomous agencies and spending mandates. As a result, central government debt has soared, from less than 25% of GDP in 2008 to 49% in 2017 (Figure 3). A comprehensive fiscal reform package is urgently needed to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio. There is ample room to raise additional revenue by broadening the tax base and continuing to fight tax evasion and avoidance. However, raising tax revenue will not help to contain the deficit unless strong earmarking and mandated spending are restricted. Reforming public-sector compensation, strengthening the budgetary framework with a new, operational fiscal rule and improving debt management would help to balance the budget.

References:

OCDE (2018), OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2018, OECD Publishing,