Positive economic outlook for the main economies in Latin America but downward risks have intensified

Alvaro S. Pereira (Director) and Latin American desks, Economics Department, Country Studies Branch, OECD The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but it has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid.  Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing … More Positive economic outlook for the main economies in Latin America but downward risks have intensified

La Croissance est à son pic, la négociation d’un atterrissage en douceur s’annonce délicate

‌Laurence Boone, Chef économiste de l’OCDE L’économie mondiale traverse des zones de turbulences. La croissance du PIB mondial est élevée, mais a probablement atteint son pic. Dans de nombreux pays, le chômage est bien en dessous de ses niveaux d’avant-crise, les tensions sur l’emploi augmentent et l’inflation demeure modérée. Mais les échanges et l’investissement marquent … More La Croissance est à son pic, la négociation d’un atterrissage en douceur s’annonce délicate

Growth has peaked: Challenges in engineering a soft landing

by Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid. Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs while … More Growth has peaked: Challenges in engineering a soft landing

If potential output estimates are too cyclical, then OECD estimates have an edge

by Yvan Guillemette and Thomas Chalaux, OECD Economics Department To assess the cyclical position of an economy, macroeconomists use a concept called potential output, which measures the economy’s production rate that is consistent with stable inflation at the target. When actual output is below potential, the ‘output gap’ is negative, the economy is depressed and, … More If potential output estimates are too cyclical, then OECD estimates have an edge

High uncertainty is weighing on global growth

By Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist Less than 6 months ago, the global economy enjoyed healthy synchronised growth. Now, the landscape has changed. Global growth is hitting a plateau, uncertainties over the path forward abound, and risks from trade restrictions and tighter financial conditions have already started to materialise in some countries. Global growth is … More High uncertainty is weighing on global growth

Rising financial integration amplifies the global impact of financial market  shocks

by Nigel Pain and Véronique Salins, OECD Economics Department Stronger cross-border economic and financial integration implies that macroeconomic shocks in one country are increasingly likely to spill over into other economies. This is particularly true in national financial markets, where developments increasingly reflect common underlying factors, as shown in the special chapter of the latest OECD … More Rising financial integration amplifies the global impact of financial market  shocks

The global impact of weaker demand growth in China

by Nigel Pain and Elena Rusticelli,  Greater international integration has modified the transmission channels and the impact that external shocks have on domestic economies via increased trade openness and exposure to global financial developments. One important change, discussed in the special chapter of the latest OECD Economic Outlook, is that growth prospects in OECD economies … More The global impact of weaker demand growth in China

Could current inflation targeting frameworks be improved?

by Makoto Kasai and Łukasz Rawdanowicz, OECD Economics Department[1] As discussed in the latest OECD Economic Outlook, the prolonged undershooting of inflation targets, despite massive monetary policy stimulus and stronger economic growth and lower unemployment, raises issues about the appropriateness of current inflation targeting frameworks in advanced economies. While the frameworks differ in detail and implementation, they … More Could current inflation targeting frameworks be improved?

Stronger Growth but Risks loom large

By Álvaro S. Pereira, OECD Chief Economist ad interim, Economics Department After a lengthy period of weak growth, the world economy is finally growing around 4%, the historical average of the past few decades. This is good news. And this news is even better knowing that, in part, the stronger growth of the world economy … More Stronger Growth but Risks loom large

La croissance s’affermit, mais des risques assombrissent fortement l’horizon

Álvaro S. Pereira, Chef économiste de l’OCDE par intérim, Département des affaires économiques Après une longue période de croissance atone, l’activité économique mondiale croît enfin au rythme d’environ 4 %, qui correspond à la moyenne historique des dernières décennies. C’est une bonne nouvelle, et qui apparaît encore meilleure lorsque l’on sait que ce rebond de la … More La croissance s’affermit, mais des risques assombrissent fortement l’horizon